@InProceedings{Pinaya:2017:FuBrFi,
               author = "Pinaya, Walter Hugo Diaz",
          affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)}",
                title = "The future of the brazilian fisheries",
                 year = "2017",
         organization = "S{\~a}o Paulo School of Advanced Science on Climate Change: 
                         Scientific basis, adaptation, vulnerability and mitigation",
             abstract = "The contribution of fisheries to global food security is quite 
                         relevant. Millions of fishermen, fish farmers and their families 
                         around the world are dependent of the fishing outcome. The world 
                         marine fishery has reduced sharply, either by the total 
                         exploitation or the overexploitation of some species . The 
                         sardines and other small pelagics are just some of the endangered 
                         species under climate change. The success of the maintenance of 
                         these fish stocks are related to the environmental variability of 
                         the oceans. This paper compares future scenarios of sea surface 
                         temperature (SST) anomaly in Southeast Brazilian Bight (SBB), in 
                         the Norh (NBCS) and South Brazilian Continental Shelf (SBCS). The 
                         Brazilian Earth System Model (BESM-OA) v.2.3 was used to represent 
                         two future scenarios (2006-2100) considering the Representative 
                         Concentration Pathway RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. We validated our results 
                         with satellite observations and compared them to Coupled Model 
                         Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5). BESM results are 
                         consistent with CMIP5 models and observations. The long-term 
                         simulation in the RCP4.5 scenario indicates an increase of the SST 
                         anomaly, up to the year 2100, 2ºC in the NBCS, 1.2ºC in the SBB 
                         and 0.5ºC in the SBCS. In the RCP8.5 situation, there is an 
                         increase of 4.5ºC in the SST anomaly of the NBCS, 2.9ºC for SBB 
                         and 1.9ºC on the SBCS. The increase in the SST will move the 
                         stocks to the optimum conditions of survival region, changing the 
                         current fishing reality. Other variables such as changes in the 
                         winds and the acidification of the oceans also interfere with the 
                         future of fishing around the world. Even with the decline in 
                         marine fish stocks, the global search for fish should continue to 
                         increase. This demand should be balanced by acquaculture which has 
                         shown continued growth in the animal food production sector.",
  conference-location = "S{\~a}o Paulo, SP",
      conference-year = "3-15 July",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "pinaya_future.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "28 abr. 2024"
}